Three newly published scientific papers from EMERGE project partners at University Mohammed I, Oujda (LEEM) offer valuable insights into Morocco’s energy future — aligning directly with EMERGE’s mission to support clean energy transitions in African countries through data-driven innovation and capacity building.They demonstrate how artificial intelligence, advanced modelling, and interdisciplinary research can guide real-world energy planning and contribute to climate resilience across the continent.

 1. Forecasting Energy Demand in the Building Sector up to 2050

By: Aboubekr Allam, Mouad Karmoun, Hassan Zahboune, Mohamed Maaouane, Smail Zouggar, Mohamed Elhafyani, Taoufik Ouchbel
Institution: EMERGE Partner – University Mohammed I, Laboratory of Electrical Engineering and Maintenance (LEEM)

This study uses a genetic algorithm to predict energy demand in Morocco’s building sector through 2050. Results show an 84% increase by 2030 and nearly 80% by 2050 (relative to 2017). The model, validated with IEA data (R² = 0.96), highlights the urgent need for sustainable building practices and strategic energy policy.

 2. Electricity Load Forecasting with Time Series Decomposition

By: M. El Fahssi, T. Ouchbel, S. Zouggar, M. Larbi Elhafyani
Institution: EMERGE Partner – University Mohammed I & ENSA Oujda

This paper applies time-series decomposition to forecast Morocco’s electricity load up to 2030. By analyzing historical data and consumption trends, the study supports EMERGE’s objectives of enabling effective planning and investment in future-ready energy systems, especially under growing urban and industrial demand.

 3. The Impact of Electric Vehicle Integration on Morocco’s Energy Demand (2017–2050)

By: Mouad Karmoun, Aboubekr Allam, Smail Zouggar, Mohamed Maaoune, Hassan Zahboune, Mohamed Elhafyani, Taoufik Ouchbel
Institution: EMERGE Partner – University Mohammed I, LEEM

This AI-powered study models six EV penetration scenarios. The most ambitious — full electric mobility by 2050 — would reduce energy demand in transport by nearly 80%, with near-zero CO₂ emissions. The analysis reinforces EMERGE’s goal to support energy-smart mobility and transport decarbonization in Africa.

Why This Matters for EMERGE

These papers reflect the scientific excellence and innovation capacity of EMERGE partners and directly support the project’s broader mission. By developing advanced forecasting tools and data-driven methodologies, the studies contribute to building local forecasting capacity in African countries, supporting evidence-based policymaking for energy transition, and promoting sustainable electrification pathways. Together, they strengthen EMERGE’s commitment to enabling informed, equitable, and resilient energy futures across the continent.

A must-read for anyone interested in the benefits and challenges of forecasting energy demand, integrating electric mobility, and planning sustainable energy systems in Africa. Full papers, in English, available here: https://emerge4green-africa.eu/resources-2/